![]() ![]() Progress on the peace process was slow, and the NLD actually blocked proposals for increased regional autonomy. The NLD was seen by many ethnic minorities as beholden to its ethnic Bamar majority supporters. What these comparisons overlook, however, is the complexity of Myanmar’s ethnic politics. These incidents – along with the declaration of allegiance by at least ten EAGs to the National Unity Government (NUG) formerly led by NLD, and talk of a “ federal army” to replace the Tatmadaw – have helped drive analogies with Syria.Īn inordinate number of foreigners flocked to fight in Syria, often driven by transnational religious and sectarian motivations that simply do not exist in Myanmar’s case. Recent attacks on Tatmadaw targets involving the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Karen National Union (KNU) are indicative of some level of coordination between the urban opposition and EAGs. Myanmar’s pre-existing array of ethnic armed groups (EAGs), with an estimated 75–78,000 armed members, would play a key role in any mass armed uprising. None of those elements currently exist in Myanmar, and it is unclear whether they ever will – particularly the second and third. Three key elements helped create the Syrian conflagration: a mass armed uprising, extensive foreign intervention on both sides and an influx of foreign fighters. Nonetheless, there are substantial differences between 2021 Myanmar and 2011–12 Syria. ![]() Geopolitically, the fault lines mirror the Syrian conflict, with Russia and China blocking Western-led efforts to censure the Tatmadaw at the United Nations. Myanmar already had a patchwork of ethnic militias, some of which have stepped up attacks on the military, known as the Tatmadaw, ostensibly in support of the protestors. Like their fellow Syrian protestors, civilians in Myanmar are forming their own militias. ![]() In mid-April, civilians in Myanmar were being killed at a higher rate than in 2011 Syria, when a crackdown on protests sparked a brutal civil war. The two scenarios are not without broad similarities. The deteriorating situation in Myanmar has led some observers to issue warnings of a “ new Syria”. ![]()
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